Thursday, June 01, 2006
世界黄金价格方向
地面股票 2005年底 | 5年平均流量供应 "http: (2001-2005) | 5年平均流量需求 (2001-2005) | ||
 |  |  |
 |  |  |  |  |  |
资料:李网有限公司*煤矿生产对冲
黄金是不寻常的,因为它是一个商品和货币资产. 因为它几乎战无不胜,所有黄金开采过的地面仍然存在一些形式,理论上,大部分地面股票可以轻易动用. 也就是说,他们以简单的、相对unfabricated形式,分述如下: 由于这个特点,任何道钉价格上升往往由转售地面股票,这是其中一个原因,是历史上的黄金价格波动幅度较小,比其他大多数商品价格. 这也说明了为何黄金的期货市场通常(但不一定)秩序,考虑 为什么黄金不同于其他商品. 实证调查 以及 黄金衍生物:市场影响 .
李有限公司估计,2005年底,地面是库存总量约115万吨,其中64%是自1950年开采. 这些鱼类的分布图,上面显示的左边.
中央银行类 地面 股票包括中央银行持有的黄金储备,如政府机构金融管理局和新加坡超机构如国际货币基金会、国际银行和欧洲中央银行的定居点.
如同大多数金属、黄金来满足需求,每年都从矿生产的金属回收已开采往年. 事实上,这个表格中所占的比例超过全年总流量的情况下提供,例如,铝和铅. 上述中心图显示,过去五年来的最大来源是回收黄金首饰市场,其次是由中央银行出售黄金.
每年黄金需求分为三大类,其中最主要的是珠宝市场,这是2005年价值$40亿美元. 黄金的需求主要是工业电子部门,还包括牙科、装饰和其他工业用途. 最后部分是投资需求. 由于相当一部分投资需求的交易场外交易市场,但不适合测量方便. 投资上述数字显示在图巴囤积包括官方硬币、奖章和仿制硬币,"其他零售投资"、黄金投资外汇资金交易及其相关产品. 可在2005年投资需求强劲增长,比前一年的25%. 供求季度我国出版统计 统计 而第 李年度黄金调查 提供大量背景资料的基本趋势.
了解各类供求,你可以在联系点上的每一页或以下项目的传奇图.
< 伦敦金价下午确定 黄金价格是参考世界各地. 还早确定,但下午出现在限定的美国市场及欧洲、中东和非洲市场仍在交易,但往往是最液态期间白天. 5市场决策成员 伦敦黄金市场协会 伦敦也确定成员:德意志银行、SociétéGénérale、汇丰银行、舍Mocatta、巴克莱、谁主持制定的明年. 其他市场参与者的贸易要解决必须这样做,这五人通过经销商.
尽管它的名字,像定程序公开拍卖过程,并提供产投标落网前,整个市场最终投标过程进行的修理本身,详述如下. 单一的固定价格执行. 客户订货与反政党,他不是一个固定的四个成员自己或其他金银商将同一个固定成员(与用户),同时确定收益. 固定成员网客个人通信网的所有命令前确定利息. 主席说,首先确定了"努力价",这反映了当时的市场价格确定开幕. 固定成员,他们要把这个人自己处理室与有关各方接触. 任何市场定位的过程中,都可以报名参加,随时调整或撤回,或根据他的意见转达价款. 黄金价格向上或向下调整,直到所有买卖订单,同时宣布固定价格. 很偶然,如果不能平衡,价格定为每裁量的董事长、一个名为"酌情确定". 确定所有订单在此基础上确定交易价格. 这些价格是引用立即通过各种渠道以及众多的黄金线路信息网站. 因此,在全面、公正解决的所有市场利益分配时.
把金价在广泛时期,不同的频率和货币 按这里 .
在金融市场上,长期资金是指贸易规模,可以在不影响执行价格. 对于黄金,与其他市场,主要是场外柜台交易、资料性往往是传闻,即根据反馈的黄金交易. 时期最大的黄金市场流动资金普遍都出现在伦敦和纽约市场公开交易,伦敦下午上午在纽约举行.
投标要求差也为投资者提供流动性和市场竞争力的一个指标.
投资分析家还看成交量和市场资金,由于资产是更积极地买卖,市场流动性,资产可能. 对于市场资金流动的影响,因为贸易可望对价部分取决于行业的规模相对于总资产交易. 举例来说,如果自由浮动是市场资金有10亿美元的公司,投资者想卖$25元的股票,将是2.5%的股份转让. 如果自由浮动,但该公司的市场资本总值只有25亿美元,将是贸易交易的10%的股份.
对于金计算市场资金并不象是为上市公司. 因为所有的黄金,从未雷在2005年年底估计约为115吨,而2005年全年平均价$444.45每特洛伊盎司,地面库存黄金,价值超过2万亿美元(一吨 是相当于32151特洛伊盎司). 但所有这一切在何种程度上可视为黄金"自由浮动"的讨论. 在伦敦举行的官方机构持有的方式,虽然不一定 伦敦标准提供良好 . 私人投资者的黄金储备也存在类似情况. 同时在这两类代表$756美元,或股票总额的34%. 速度与剩余库存黄金可动用取决于它的形式,将能更快地收集和完善24克拉的黄金首饰不是会说,收回黄金从电子元件等手机联系和主机板的计算机. 但一旦到达废弃炼油厂,这是处理问题,而不是几周几天. 因此,一些分析家认为,到1986年占全球地面理论上可以动用的库存比较短的时间内,要考虑到所涉及的金 央行黄金协议 . 这相当于大约$1.91万亿美元,按2005年的平均金价.
正是这种流动,速度黄金可以重新再出售时的预测价格(或因销售困难)这意味着有很少真正短缺的金属,当然不是很长的一段时间. 这是一个结果, 波动 黄金的价格一般较低. 此外,黄金的收益率曲线(差异和远期价格附近)几乎都是正面的. 换言之,远期价格高于附近,黄金价格通常在接近"全面执行",即在附近的比例关系,并提出以美元计的价格相当接近当时美元利率.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) clearing statistics and net long non-commercial positions in gold futures and options are widely viewed as key indicators of investor interest in gold. However, if there is a modest spectrum of views with respect to the total market capitalisation of gold, there is an extensive range of opinions about how to interpret these statistics, particularly when it comes to the extent to which positions in the derivatives markets have an impact on demand for physical gold.
The LBMA publishes clearing statistics for gold and silver on its website on a monthly basis and also provides a commentary on recent trends.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes data on gold futures and options on a weekly basis. In practice, these statistics cover COMEX data only and not futures and options traded on other exchanges due to CFTC rules. The chart below shows the net long non-commercial positions in gold futures as published by the CFTC of gold futures contracts (net long non-commercial positions) traded on Comex between January 2001 and December 2005, overlaid with the gold price for the same period, indicating a relatively strong positive relationship between the two variables.
The chart below show the volume of gold futures contracts (net long non-commercial positions) traded on Comex between January 2001 and December 2005, overlaid with the gold price for the same period.
The global trade in gold consists of Over the Counter (OTC) transactions in spot, forwards, and options and other more exotic derivatives, together with exchange-traded futures and options. This section covers only Over the Counter (OTC) transactions. For more information on trading in the derivatives market, click here.
Over the Counter transactions take place between principals, not through exchanges. These transactions account for the majority of global gold trading. This is because OTC trades take place between counter-parties who deal with each other directly, who arrange their own terms and conditions and handle their own risk and credit arrangements. They thus have a high degree of flexibility in their transactions. The futures exchanges, which tend to dominate trading volume in other commodities, are far more rigid in terms, for example, of margin requirements, fixed contract sizes and fixed maturity dates.
The OTC market operates on a 24-hour per day basis around the world although intra-day liquidity will vary, according to which markets are open at any one time. The main centres for OTC dealings are London, New York, and Zurich, which are wholesale markets with the lowest transaction size typically not less than 1000 ounces. In general, mining companies and central banks tend to transact their business through London and New York. The New York market also services manufacturers of jewellery and industrial products, and investment and speculative business; Zurich specialises in supplying physical gold to manufacturers of jewellery and industrial products. Centres such as Dubai and several cities in the Far East also transact important OTC business, typically involving jewellery and small bars (of one kilogram or less) for private investment. Although most OTC trades are cleared through London, a number of bullion dealers have offices around the world and the majority will operate one trading book, which is handed on from office to office during the working day. Most of the major bullion dealers around the world are either members or associate members of the London Bullion Market Association. Their names and contact details are available on the LBMA’s website.
Trading in spot, forwards, options and other derivatives is offered on a continuous basis. Business is generally conducted over the phone and over the electronic dealing system. Twice daily during London trading hours there is a “fix” which offers reference prices for that day’s trading. Many long-term contracts will be priced on the basis of either the morning or afternoon London fix, and the market will usually refer to one or other of these prices when looking for a basis for valuations.
The settlement process is similar to that of an international foreign exchange market, where settlement is effected by debits and credits over currency accounts in the respective banking systems. The basis of settlement is delivery of a standard London Good Delivery bar, at the London vault nominated by the dealer who made the sale. Currency settlement for gold transactions will generally be in US dollars over a US dollar account held in New York.
The clearing process is a system of paper transfers whereby members offering clearing services utilise the unallocated gold accounts that they maintain between each other, not only for settlement of mutually agreed trades but also for third party transfers. These transfers are conducted on behalf of clients and other members of the OTC market in settlement of their bullion activities. This avoids the security risk and costs of physical movement.
Gold Markets and Futures Exchanges
As outlined in our description of derivatives and mechanics of the gold market, gold trades in both forwards and futures as well as the physical market. This piece outlines the major future exchanges around the world.
The futures exchanges are as follows:
| Exchange | Contract size | Start date | Price quotation | Nature of trading | Outright Initial margin (April 06) |
| NYMEX | 100 oz 99.5% purity | 31 Dec 74 | US$/ oz | Continuous open outcry plus electronic trading via ACCESS | Clearing member; member & hedge customer; $1,750 Non-member speculative $2,363 |
| TOCOM | 1 kilo, 99.99% purity | 23 Mar 82 | Yen/ gramme | Continuous computerised | ¥90,000 |
| MCX | 100g 1kilo, 3 kg | 10 Nov 2003 | Rp/10g | Continuous computerised | 4% (5% for the 100g contract) |
| NCDEX | 100g, 1 kilo, 99.99% purity | 15 Dec 2003 | Rp/10g | Continuous computerised | Membership fee: as a cash free security deposit |
| CBOT | 100 oz (Full-sized), 33.2 oz (Mini-sized), not less than 99.5% purity | 6 Oct 2004 | US$/ oz | Continuous computerised | Per 100 oz contract: $2,430 (initial); $1,850 (maintenance). Per 33.2 oz contract: $743(initial); $550 (maintenance) |
| TurkDEX | 100g | 4 Feb 2005 | Turkish Lira/ gramme | Continuous computerised 'auction' | Initial margin: 250 Turkish Lira per contract; Maintenance margin: 187,5 Turkish Lira per contract |
| DGCX | 1Kilo 99.5% purity | June 2005 | US$/ oz | Continuous computerised | US$ 480 per contract |
London’s Over the Counter market, COMEX and TOCOM have been long established in the market and Istanbul is increasingly making its name. Electronic platforms started in India in late 2003 and are now traded through Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX); both have developed healthy trading volumes.
MCX set itself up as an independent electronic trading platform to service not just gold but the multi-faceted agrarian economy in India. Shareholders include a large number of Indian banks and the organisation is run on a de-mutualised basis, so that ownership of the exchange operations is separate from its management. It operates with strategic alliances with major commodities exchanges including the Bombay Bullion Association; technological back-up is provided by Financial Technologies (India) Ltd., which has the technology to provide a vertically integrated service.
NCDEX runs on a similar basis, offering an electronic trading platform across the hard and soft commodities. Precious metals contracts include gold and silver. NCDEX is backed by a large number of local banks and institutions and it, too, operates on a de-mutualised basis and currently trades 35 different commodities.
The most recent development was the opening in 2005 of the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) as Dubai builds on its important role as a physical trading centre, notably but by no means exclusively with India and the Middle East (Dubai typically handles 20% of the world’s physical trade in gold). In addition, the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre has created its own Dubai Good Delivery standard, which is specifically designed for small bars and is designed fully to complement the London large bar good delivery standard. Bars are to be of weights between 100g and one kilo, with a minimum of 995.0 parts per thousand. Shape, appearance and marks are in conformity with the London rules.
In addition there are registered physical exchanges as follows:
The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong was registered under this name with the Government in 1918, although trading had been taking place with a degree of rules and regulations since 1910 (as "Gold and Silver Exchange Company").
Istanbul Gold Exchange (the physical market), founded 26 July 1995, is an electronic system trading in units of one kilo and, like the futures market, quotes in dollars and euros per ounce and Turkish lire per gramme. The Exchange is aimed largely at the jewellery industry; reflecting the fact that the trading unit is one kilo, which would be beyond the reach of a typical retail client. Trading in London good delivery bars (“large bars”) is also permissible.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange officially opened 30th October 2002. The market is currently trading in one kilo and three kilos, with purities of 99.99% and 99.95%, and quoted in Yuan/gramme. At the moment this, like Istanbul, largely serves the jewellery industry and physical turnover last year was approximately twice national jewellery demand. Overseas members are permitted provided the metal traded is to be used in China. Initial attempts to trade futures did not receive much support, but three exchange members have received permission to prepare derivative products and given the increasing liberalisation of this growing market, the progress will be interesting to watch.
